Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival

Bibtex

@misc{db918373-b3af-4ac0-83ea-e19da7febb2c,
title = "Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival",
abstract = "Abstract Despite increasing awareness of invasive non-native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high-risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high-risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years. Ninety-two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013. Policy implications: We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high-risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS.",
author = "Jodey M. Peyton and Stephanie L. Rorke and David C. Aldridge and Oliver L. Pescott and Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz and David G. Noble and Jack Sewell and Alan J.A. Stewart and Tim Adriaens and Björn C. Beckmann and Robert J Britton and Juliet Brodie and Peter J.M. Brown and Imogen C. N. Cavadino and Paul F. Clark and Alison M. Dunn and Jim Foster and Colin Harrower and Martin C. Harvey and Michelle C. Jackson and Tomos Jones and Christine A. Maggs and Gabrielle Martin and Fiona Mathews and Aileen C. Mill and Debbie Murphy and Ellie Paganini and Robin Payne and Wolfgang Rabitsch and Trevor Renals and Karsten Schönrogge and Richard H. Shaw and Graham C. Smith and Paul D. Stebbing and Pete A. Stroh and Hannah J. Tidbury and Elena Tricarico and Jeanne Vallet and Kevin J. Walker and Louisa E. Wood and Christine A. Wood and Ben A. Woodcock and Helen E. Roy",
year = "2025",
month = dec,
day = "05",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70217",
language = "English",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
address = "Belgium,
type = "Other"
}

Authors

Jodey M. Peyton
Stephanie L. Rorke
David C. Aldridge
Oliver L. Pescott
Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz
David G. Noble
Jack Sewell
Alan J.A. Stewart
Tim Adriaens
Björn C. Beckmann
Robert J Britton
Juliet Brodie
Peter J.M. Brown
Imogen C. N. Cavadino
Paul F. Clark
Alison M. Dunn
Jim Foster
Colin Harrower
Martin C. Harvey
Michelle C. Jackson
Tomos Jones
Christine A. Maggs
Gabrielle Martin
Fiona Mathews
Aileen C. Mill
Debbie Murphy
Ellie Paganini
Robin Payne
Wolfgang Rabitsch
Trevor Renals
Karsten Schönrogge
Richard H. Shaw
Graham C. Smith
Paul D. Stebbing
Pete A. Stroh
Hannah J. Tidbury
Elena Tricarico
Jeanne Vallet
Kevin J. Walker
Louisa E. Wood
Christine A. Wood
Ben A. Woodcock
Helen E. Roy